Confabulation : (Wikipedia) In psychology, Confabulation is a memory disturbance, defined as the production of fabricated, distorted or misinterpreted memories about oneself or the world, without the conscious intention to deceive. Confabulation is distinguished from lying as there is no intent to deceive and the person is unaware the information is false.
(“You are now less dumb”, David McRaney) Neuroscience now knows that confabulations are common and continuous in both the healthy and the afflicted.
Over Fit of Model : example Fukushima where available data showed fewer highest intensity earthquakes than predicted by the Gutenberg-Richter fit. Japanese experts concluded that there was an inflection in the curve, and rationalized that the geological characteristics of the region explained that. As a result, the estimate for the probability of a magnitude 9 event was 1 in 13,000 years vs the Gutenberg-Richter prediction of 1 in 300 years …
Complex System : example heap of sand. Each grain you add from top will either stay in place or go down the heap. Once in a while one will trigger a sand avalanche. Key property : large periods of apparent stasis, sudden and catastrophic failures. Not random, but so irreducibly complex that cannot be predicted beyond a certain level. Differs from Chaos theory. Theoricized by Physicist Per Bak.